Understanding the Trends and Patterns of Rainfall Variability and Its Implications for Climate-Resilient Development in Osogbo, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70882/fujohssaca.2025.v1(AHBSI).111Keywords:
Climate-resilient, Development Pattern Rainfall Variability, TrendAbstract
The study examined rainfall patterns in Osogbo for 30 years to identify changes in the variability and their implication for sustainable environmental management. The study aimed at understanding rainfall variability trend and pattern.Data for the study is from a secondary source. It was sourced from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet). The data was analyzed using statistical technique The study revealed variability in the rainfall pattern across the seasons, with a significant difference between the wet and the dry seasons. The Men –Kendal test revealed that the S value is equal to 83, the Z Value equals 1.46, and the p value is equal to 0.143. The seasonality index shows a fluctuating dry season, which is more intense with a reduction in corresponding reductions in rainfall. The ARIMA analysis showed a stationary value of 0.6171, forecasting an increasing trend with fluctuation around 5.69mm by 2026. The standard precipitation index showed an average standard precipitation index of a wetter than expected condition. The dry years are 2014, 2000, and 2016, while the wet years are 1991, 1997, and 2012. There are alternatives between wet and dry years, but it revealed wet than dry years. It also revealed the increase in frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes like floods, droughts, etc. The study concluded that there is a need for proactive and adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects and risks of extreme rainfall events. Therefore, it recommends strengthening climate monitoring, developing climate-resilient infrastructures.
References
Abiodun, B. J (2016). Using regional climate models to simulate extreme rainfall events in the Western Cape, South Africa.
Adedokun, J. A. (1978). Towards achieving an in-season forecast of the West African precipitation. Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie, Serie A, 28(1), 19-38.
Adedokun, J. A. (1979). Towards achieving an in-season forecast of the West African precipitation. Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie, Serie A, 28(1), 19-38.
Adedokun, J. A. (1995). Spectral solar irradiance under Harmattan conditions. Renewable Energy, 6(8), 989-996.
Adefolalu, D. O. (1983). Weather forecasting and the role of scale interaction in West Africa. Archives for meteorology, geophysics, and bioclimatology, Series A, 32(1), 103-117. Ayoade, A. A. (2004). Gill asymmetry from Ogun River, Southwest Nigeria. Revista de biología tropical, 52(1), 171-175. 1.
Ilesanmi, O. O. (1971). An empirical formulation of an ITD rainfall model for the tropics: a case study of Nigeria. Journal of Applied Meteorology (1962-1982), 882-89
Ileoje H (2000). Geography of Nigeria,University publishers,Ibadan Nigeria.
Lamb, P. J. (1983). Interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic. Nature, 322(6076), 238–240.
Ologunorisa, T. E., & Ologunorisa, O. V. (2017). The Challenge of Climate Change in Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria.
Ologunorisa, T. E., & Ologunorisa, O. V. (2017). The Challenge of Climate Change in Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria Odekunle, T. O. (2010). An Assessment of the Influence of the Inter‐Tropical Discontinuity on Inter‐Annual Rainfall Characteristics in Nigeria. Geographical Research, 48(3), 314-326
Olaniran, O. J. (1991). Evidence of climatic change in Nigeria based on annual rainfall of different daily amounts, 1919–1985. Climatic change, 19(3), 319-340.
Obasi, G. O. P. (1965). On maintaining the kinetic energy of mean zonal flow in the southern hemisphere. Tellus, 17(1), 95-105. Region of Nigeria. Journal of Human Ecology, 31(3), 185-195
Ogolo, E. O., & Adeyemi, B. (2009). Variations and trends of some meteorological parameters at Ibadan, Nigeria. The Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 10(2), 981-987
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Olugbenga Adewale Adewoye (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
